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Fitch raises coking coal price forecast for 2025, iron ore price to fall as global supplyris-鍛造展-2026年第二十六屆廣州國際鍛造工業展覽會-Forging Exhibition-2026 China(Guangzhou)International Forging Industry Exhibition
12/9/2025 鍛造展-forging expo-forging exhibition--forging event |
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International credit ratings agency Fitch Ratings has announced that it has updated its outlook for coking coaland iron ore, adjusting its 2025 and 2026 price assumptions to reflect stronger-than-anticipated marketconditions and shifting supply fundamentals.
Global iron ore supply to expand
Fitch expects iron ore demand to remain broadly flat over the next two years. However, the agency sees asignificant increase in global supply, estimated at 50-75 million mt during the period.
A major driver of this expansion is the ramp-up of the low-cost Simandou iron ore mine in Guinea, which isexpected to deliver around 20 million mt in 2026 and 45 million mt in 2027.
With supply outpacing demand, Fitch forecasts a $100/mt iron ore price at the close of 2025 and a further dropto $90/mt in 2026. The agency noted that the higher-than-expected 2026 starting point reflects the strong priceenvironment observed year to date.
Coking coal outlook
Reflecting firm market conditions and robust year-to-date pricing, Fitch has raised its 2025 coking coal priceassumption. The updated outlook now expects $185/mt in 2025, softening to $180/mt in 2026, with pricesremaining stable through 2028.
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